[Patents] 1999 software patent counts

[Gregory Aharonian srctran@world.std.com]

Guys,
        Here are my estimates for 1999 software patent counts.  Read
them and weep.
Greg Aharonian
www.bustpatents.com


    My estimate for the number of US software patents in 1999 is 21,000.
I calculated this as follows.  In 12 weeks of 1999 (four in March, four
in October and four in November), approximately 6080 software patents
issued. These twelve weeks comprised 29% of all US patents issued in 1999.
6080/0.29 equals 21,000. Of these, approximately 600 were Internet specific,
with another 500 general networking patents obviously applicable to the
Internet.  Based on counts of non-patent prior art citations appearing on
the front page of the patent, software patent quality has gradually drifted
downwards since 1994.

    My guess for software patents for the year 2000 is 24,000, as I think
we are entering the peak region of the normally distributed growth and decay
curve found in other measures of technology development, with over 20,000
software patents issuing each year during this decade (as crazy as that
sounds).

    What follows are counts on (software) patents dating back twenty
years.  TOTAL is the total number of patents issued that year, GREG is my
count or estimated count of software patents (using the Greg Aharonian
scheme) issued in that year.  SOFTWARE is the number of patents in that
year that includes the word "software" somewhere in the specification,
claims or abstract.  (364&395) is the total number of patents issued in
these two main computing classes, used by those too lazy to actual track
down and count real software patents (note circa 1998 the PTO started
downgrading the use of classes 364 and 395, for the 700s classes).

      YEAR    TOTAL       GREG        SOFTWARE     364&395   
      1999    154534     21000(est)     17603        6410    
      1998    150961     17500(est)     16100       10571    
      1997    124181     13000(est)     10017        8190    
      1996    121799      9000           9104        7922    
      1995    113941      6142           6951        6114    
      1994    113706      4569           6009        5745    
      1993    109876      2400           4929        4862    
      1992    107489      1624           4068        4073    
      1991    106831      1500           3543        3817    
      1990     99210      1300           3046        3606    
      1989    102686      1600           3090        3980    
      1988     84433       800           2053        2708    
      1987     89578       800           2038        2766    
      1986     77039       600           1483        2202    
      1985     77268       500           1324        1978    
      1984     72668       400           1003        1857    
      1983     62005       350            635        1517    
      1982     63291       300            603        1446    
      1981     71105       300            544        1257    
      1980     66206       250            465        1239    
      1979     52480       200            269         986    
      1978     70564       150            299        1272    
      1977     69797       100            300        1320    
      1976     70924       100            208        1113    
      1975     72156       100            188         817    
      1974     62342       100            188         838    
      1973     61019       150            122         871    
      1972     58603       200            110         906    
      1971     50904       100             68         896